The summer file got off to a bad start in July, which is 1 billion less than last year. We should all wake up.
(This article first appeared in the film’s rising capital, welcome WeChat to search for filmmore.)
1905 movie network exclusive This year’s summer file can be described as a bad start. From July 1 to July 31, the total box office revenue in China was only 4,503.5 million, a negative growth of 18.2% compared with 5,506.1 million in July last year. This is the third negative growth in a single month after April and May this year, and it is also the first negative growth in the summer file in five years.
This also means that the goal of 60 billion yuan for the whole year given by some so-called "insiders" is basically hopeless. Of course, if you look closely, it is not difficult to find that the overall performance of the film market is not entirely due to the film itself. The growth of the audience and the gradual improvement of the market mechanism have squeezed out the industry bubble to a certain extent, which is actually guiding the market in a healthier direction.
In the face of cold figures, it may be time for us to wake up blindly and optimistically. For correctly understanding the market development, evaluating and forecasting the industry environment, it is obviously not a bad thing to return to rationality … …
There was no phenomenal film in July, and no "carriage" appeared.
Unlike last summer’s "Troika", which triggered phenomenal viewing, the domestic movies released in July were obviously not hot enough:
Comparison of TOP 10 Mainland Box Offices in July 2015 and 2016
Although the big fish begonia, which has been waiting for 12 years, is grand and well-made, it has been controversial because of the plot and other issues. It has not recreated the glory of last year’s "Great Sage", and the box office of the film is also high and low. It is expected that 1 billion will only be 559 million.
"Chill 2" captured 670 million box office, although compared with the 254 million in the first film, it was no small gain. The pattern of the film is also more open and complex, but the film still loses a little in word of mouth;
The Jedi Escape, which ranked first in the box office list in July, was actually released the latest in TOP 3, which fully proved Jackie Chan’s good ability to absorb gold, but the box office of 733 million yuan was not as good as the third-ranked "Great Sage" last year.
In July this year, the glory of last year’s "Troika" was not reproduced.
During this so-called domestic film "Protection Month", three Hollywood films were "admitted" for the first time, one was Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2: Breaking Through the Shadows, the other was Warner’s Return of Mount Tai: Dangerous War in the Jungle, and the other was The Secret Life of Pets released today.
The first two films captured 393 million yuan and 277 million yuan respectively. In this year’s import sub-account blockbuster, such achievements can only be regarded as mediocre. It should be said that the entry of these two imported films consuming old IP did not threaten the domestic film market, and the quality and reputation of the films were relatively average, which did not play much role in promoting the overall box office.
Will these three films be a shot in the arm for the August movie market?
In the following August, I’m afraid that only "The Secret Life of Pets" will sell well, with a first-day box office of 38.33 million US dollars, which broke the first-day box office record of the original film created by Pixar Inside Out last year. However, it has been nearly a month since the film premiered in North America, and it is still hard to say whether it can resist the impact of online piracy on the box office.
The ticket replenishment has been greatly weakened, and the market is gradually recovering.
According to the data of Yi En Consulting, the average ticket price of China movies in the first quarter of 2015 was RMB 17 yuan, but this year this figure has risen to 22.25 yuan.
"Young people in small towns are very sensitive to prices. If there is no ticket supplement, some people in this group will not go to the cinema or form an inertia to watch movies," said Qiu Jie, CEO of Lion Mouse Film.
Some insiders believe that among the 44 billion box office of China movies last year, the income from ticket compensation may be between 3 billion and 5 billion. On July 22nd this year, Wang Changtian, president of Light Media, pointed out in an interview that this year’s ticket subsidy may be reduced to 1.5 billion or even less.
Different from last year, with the merger of Guevara and micro-tickets, and the cat’s eye holding hands with public comments, the "ticket-making war" conducted by various online ticketing platforms for staking has basically come to an end. The investment in ticket compensation by various platforms is gradually shrinking.
Two stages of ticket replacement, the picture comes from: entertainment capital theory
Qiu Jie believes that this year, as the whole film market tends to be stable, online ticketing platforms have no desire to make up tickets, and only some producers and distributors continue to provide subsidies. It’s not hard to explain this wish of the film. After all, with the beautiful box office results, it’s easy to improve the company’s valuation and bargaining power for new projects, and the investment in ticket compensation has indeed brought the audience.
However, with the weakening of ticket replenishment, the audience accustomed to 9.9 yuan and 19.9 yuan may not be able to adapt to the normal movie tickets at once. The negative growth at present is probably only due to the inevitable phenomenon in the process of the real movie consumption level of Chinese audience gradually recovering its true content, which is actually benign in the long run.
On the other hand, it is not as easy as before to "succeed" by locking tickets, ghost field and other bad behaviors. For example, the box office data and film arrangement of "never gone" once caused great controversy, and the 400 million guaranteed release promise behind it also plunged the lithography era into the whirlpool of public opinion.