11 countries have different opinions. Japan wants to ＂resurrect＂ TPP or in vain.

　　□ Reporter Yong Yong

　　On July 12th and 13th, under the leadership of Japan, 11 TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) participating countries except the United States held a meeting of chief negotiators in Hakone-CHO, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, to discuss the issue of "reviving" the TPP agreement after the withdrawal of the United States. Judging from the talks, in the absence of the largest economy and the largest consumer market, the United States, countries have great differences of opinion on the revision of the agreement, and Japan’s prospects for "resurrecting" the TPP are dim.

　　Japan has made two preparations.

　　The entry into force condition of TPP is that at least 6 of the 12 TPP participating countries must complete the domestic approval procedures before February 3, 2018, and the total GDP of the countries that have completed the approval procedures should account for more than 85% of the 12 participating countries. Because the United States accounts for 60.3% of the GDP of TPP participating countries, in January this year, US President Trump signed a presidential decree to announce his withdrawal from TPP, which actually issued a "death sentence" to TPP.

　　In the case of TPP "stillborn", Japan has been trying to "resurrect" TPP. In fact, Japan has made two preparations. In addition to persuading the United States to return to the TPP through various channels, Japan is also ready to pull other TPP participating countries to go it alone.

　　A series of activities in Japan send a strong message to the outside world, that is, TPP can be "dead", but Japan attempts to push the high-standard trade rules established by TPP to continue to exist as the guidelines for the international community to build a free trade mechanism in the future.

　　Attempt to moderate domestic criticism

　　Japan has done this for the following reasons. First, flaunt it to the international community as a staunch supporter of free trade and try to play a leading role in the construction of international trade order. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said before the plenary meeting of the Japanese Senate approving TPP in December 2016 that although the prospect of TPP’s entry into force is unclear, it is of great significance to convey the strategic and economic significance of building a fair economic circle to the world, showing Japan’s ambition to play a leading role in the construction of the international trade order.

　　The second is to use the "resurrection" TPP to counter the economic accounts calculated by the Trump administration of the United States and Japan. After Trump took office, he not only criticized Japan for hitchhiking in security, but also criticized the high trade deficit between the United States and Japan, demanding that the United States and Japan negotiate and sign a trade agreement between the two countries to reverse the trade imbalance between the two countries. Previously, Japan and the United States had established a dialogue mechanism for negotiations on trade issues between Burns and Taro Aso, the "second-in-command" of the two countries. Before formally entering the negotiations, Japan first reached an EPA (Japan-Europe Economic Partnership Agreement) agreement with Europe, and then pulled 11 other TPP participating countries to Japan to talk about "reviving" the TPP issue, with the aim of preparing ammunition for the upcoming "trade war" between Japan and the United States.

　　The third is to exert the "surplus value" of TPP in countering the influence of China. At the beginning, TPP was regarded as a means for the United States and Japan to control the economic order in the Asia-Pacific region and balance China’s economic rise. After the failure of TPP, Japan completely ignored the great differences of national conditions in the negotiation of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), another important regional trade mechanism, and constantly used TPP as a model to build RCEP, which greatly delayed the negotiation of RCEP and the process of Asian economic integration.

　　Finally, the failure of TPP has caused a huge impact on Abe’s economic and foreign policies, and Abe tried to escape criticism by "resurrecting" TPP. From the formal announcement of joining the TPP negotiations in 2013 to the formal approval of the TPP agreement by the Japanese Parliament in December 2016, Abe’s government spent a lot of diplomatic and political resources on the TPP issue, and the withdrawal of the United States from the TPP made all the efforts of Abe’s government beat Shui Piao. Under this circumstance, there are many voices in Japan criticizing Abe’s lack of strategic predictive power. In the next step, the Abe government’s "resurrection" of TPP, even if it fails, can at least play a role in easing domestic criticism.

　　The 11 countries have different opinions.

　　Japan’s Kyodo News reported that at this meeting of chief negotiators, Australia and New Zealand were in line with Japan’s position because they aimed at expanding their exports of agricultural products to Asia after the entry into force of TPP, calling for "minimum revision of the terms", especially advocating maintaining the original level of tariff reduction and exemption, ensuring the stability of the agreement and avoiding protracted negotiations due to different opinions on revision.

　　However, Malaysia, Vietnam and other countries originally planned to enter the US market by participating in the TPP, and made big concessions on issues such as tariff level and foreign investment restrictions. When the United States announced that it would not participate in the TPP, these countries hoped to "take back" these concessions and renegotiate the conditions.

　　Although Japan is the third largest economy in the world, there is a big gap between Japan and the United States in terms of economic volume and domestic market size. After replacing the United States as the "group owner" of TPP, how Japan can provide benefits to the above countries in the revision of the agreement to show the attractiveness of TPP in 11 countries is the key to whether TPP can be "resurrected". However, judging from Japan’s actual economic situation, it obviously does not have such ability.

　　Legal Daily, Tokyo, July 13th