The curtain of the World Cup opens.

　　A new model of online gambling: to help acquaintances get into the water to make up for losses.

　　The bars are bustling at night, and the sound of glasses colliding is very lively. Bosses should be glad that the World Cup has brought good business and popularity again.

　　It’s not just beer that does business, but also online gambling. Although the crackdown on online gambling in China has made "agents" no longer "give away" websites and user names and passwords in bars unscrupulously, and no longer openly give away hundreds of dollars of "initial funds", on the Internet, the so-called "gambling websites" are still selling vigorously: 24-hour betting and 1-hour receipt …

　　The Beijing police never slackened. With the start of the World Cup, another online gambling case was uncovered, and the relevant people were "lifted" out of the water.

　　Our reporter Li Song Huang Jie Intern Wu Meng

　　The World Cup in South Africa is in full swing, and countless fans are immersed in the four-year football feast to appreciate the charm of competition. Behind the passion of civilization, around football, the most concerned ball game, a gambling activity with winning or losing the game as the betting object is gradually heating up.

　　A few days ago, the reporter learned from the Beijing police that in order to curb the development momentum of such illegal and criminal acts, the Beijing police launched a special campaign to crack down on pornography and gambling drugs in April, which has achieved initial results and destroyed 90 gambling gangs for profit. Among them, the Internet has become a gambling position that cannot be underestimated.

　　"On this website, the amount of bets in February this year was as high as 170 million yuan." Recently, Xuanwu police in Beijing revealed to the reporter of Legal Daily the inside story of the operation of an online gambling website recently cracked by them. "This gambling website named’ Jinsha’ is completely a pyramid scheme of stealing teachers, and its marketing chain is extremely secret."

　　Simple website mode, hidden gambling, and various "promotions" to attract members to join.

　　On February 3rd this year, the Cyber Security Department of Beijing Public Security Bureau found that a suspect in Xuanwu District, as a "super shareholder" of a gambling website, organized a large number of domestic people to conduct online gambling through an overseas gambling sites, and the amount of gambling funds involved was huge.

　　Through further investigation, investigators found that gambling sites, named "Jinsha", was engaged in illegal gambling activities in China with the help of the platform of overseas gambling websites and synchronized with overseas gambling websites. In order to avoid the blow, the "Jinsha" website is very concealed. Open the homepage of the website without any words about gambling, just a simple user name and password login block. However, this user name and password on "Jinsha" can not be easily obtained by registering or paying publicly like ordinary websites. The only way is to become a member through an acquaintance.

　　Although you become a member, you can participate in the betting on the "Jinsha" website, but this is only the first step to participate in this online gambling organization.

　　According to the rules of "Jinsha" website, ordinary members have an upper limit for each bet when they first join the club. With the continuous increase of the total number of successful transactions of members, the credit line obtained will continue to increase, and the upper limit of betting will continue to rise. In this way of "promotion", "Jinsha" and similar websites often let gamblers get deeper and deeper.

　　In addition, in order to attract gamblers to participate, "Jinsha" website adopts the method of virtual betting. That is to say, the bet is only virtual, and it is really necessary to wait until the result of one or several rounds of gambling is "settled" before the settlement and cash delivery are needed. And the biggest "benefit" of this operation is that it makes it possible for those gamblers who are short of money and are lucky to get rich to participate in gambling activities.

　　"Pyramid" structure, the banker is sure to make a profit.

　　According to the criminal suspect’s account, the operation mode of "Jinsha" gambling sites is very similar to the pyramid structure of pyramid marketing: based on an overseas Internet gambling sites, from "super shareholder" to "pyramid" gambling participants of different levels, such as "shareholder", "general agent" and "agent", to form a well-structured criminal gang, and on this basis, an online gambling casino for football matches is set up with the help of the platform of overseas gambling sites to develop.

　　As gambling sites, the main profit of "Jinsha" comes from what they call "water money".

　　The operation mode of "Jinsha" website is completely synchronized with gambling sites in other countries or regions that allow gambling. The domestic activities are only to develop offline gambling and then draw commission. The bookmakers of foreign betting companies will comprehensively consider the collected information of the clubs of both sides of the game, including the main injuries, internal upper management, capital operation, the status of the main players, and the number of bets made by the lottery players, etc., and work out the comprehensive gap between the two teams in this game, and according to this gap, work out the coefficient of profit and loss of the gamblers on both sides, which is often called "odds" by gamblers.

　　"The formulation of’ odds’ must be based on the premise that gaming companies can make a profit from it." The case-handling personnel told reporters that, for example, both sides bet on 100 yuan, assuming the odds are "2", then the winner should get twice as much money as the bet, that is, 200 yuan. But as a gambling company, the odds will only be set at "1.9" at most, and the remaining 10 yuan money will be taken away as the banker’s "water money". Therefore, in this process, only the bookmakers are sure to make a profit.

　　According to the police investigation, a "super agent" of "Jinsha" website can make profits as high as tens of thousands of yuan by "pumping water" in a game.

　　What’s even more frightening is that many gamblers don’t know that in order to obtain permanent benefits, bookmakers sometimes use their own information and technical advantages to cheat on the odds. Because the dealer can know how many people take part in a game and the betting situation of both sides at the first time, he can adjust the odds artificially by computer means in time.

　　Elite "crazy" development offline only to make up for huge gambling debts.

　　It is understood that in the cracked "Jinsha" online gambling case, the 20 suspects who were arrested were complicated, including business leaders and social idlers, but those who joined the ranks of managers generally had high school education or above.

　　Among the arrested suspects, two gambling participants with high academic qualifications and good jobs are particularly interesting. According to the police, both of them graduated from universities and used to be partners in an IT company, earning a lot of money. The company they belong to specializes in internet equipment, which has a very good benefit in North China and is also famous. By chance, the two became members of the "Jinsha" website through the introduction of acquaintances, and began to fall into the "mire" of online gambling step by step. In just over a year, two "IT elites" almost lost everything. Before being captured, the two were already "agents" of the "Jinsha" website.

　　The reason why these "elites" join the ranks of managers is mostly to make up for the debts owed by gambling as ordinary members. Because in the gang structure of the "Jinsha" pyramid, the upper platform can always control the lower platform. Every time managers develop an "off-line" gambler, they can draw from every bet of the member, and the proportion of the draw will increase with the increase of the level of managers.

　　According to reports, in order to enhance the trust of gamblers, "Jinsha" website only takes the winning or losing of various international sports competitions as the betting object to show fairness, and the website also adopts the traditional Chinese display mode, which is intended to imply that gamblers are related to gambling companies in Macao or other countries. After each game, the "Jinsha" website will check out step by step according to the administrator level. If it is just an ordinary member, it is basically fixed to meet with its superiors on Monday or Thursday and pay the gambling money.

　　This post-payment settlement method determines that every agent of Jinsha website can only develop the characteristics of acquaintances, and this characteristic itself makes similar websites easily develop into organized crimes involving black gangs, which is more difficult than ordinary forms of online gambling. The person in charge of the network security department of Xuanwu Public Security Bureau said: "In addition, online gambling itself is cross-regional, involving a large scope and involving a lot of funds, which is extremely harmful to society."

　　At present, more than 20 "Jinsha" online gambling gangs have been criminally detained by Xuanwu Public Security Bureau on suspicion of opening casinos, and the case is still under further investigation.

　　Case meaning

　　At present, you can still browse a lot of relevant information by typing "renting (renting) football management platform" or related keywords in relevant search engines.

　　It is understood that up to now, Beijing police have cracked more than 100 online gambling cases this year and arrested more than 300 gamblers. Especially since the crackdown on pornography and gambling drugs was launched on April 11th, 90 profit-making gambling gangs have been destroyed, including 16 online gambling gangs such as online gambling, online Mark Six lottery and online baccarat, 189 gambling taps have been detained in criminal detention, and more than 960,000 yuan of gambling funds have been collected. Today, the trend of encirclement and suppression of online gambling is "one wave is higher than another", but the source of its flooding still continues to spread. How to make relevant departments jointly crack down and further improve the crackdown effect may be the next issue for the police to consider.

Special feature of 1905 film network The Hong Kong Film Awards ended, and the news of winning the film emperor for the sixth time became the biggest highlight of this year. There are also many people who feel sorry for it. His performance in the film completely subverted everyone’s perception of his past.

Different from those familiar police and lawyers, Zhang Jianhua, the president of the disabled hospital, is a proper villain. Even Lin Baoyi said to himself, "He is a devil".

His almost immersive performance, few scenes, after the turning point, the public unconsciously put their eyes on him, and eventhinkHis expression, all seem terrible and real.

What many people don’t know is that four years before the film started shooting, Lin Baoyi turned down the role. After taking over the script, the two chatted again, and this film Under the Sun came into being.

In the face of an interview with 1905 Film Network, Lin Baoyi said frankly more than once, "This is a challenge."

In the past, he only took part in his favorite role, but Zhang Jianhua made him hate it very much. "From the actor’s point of view, there is a lot of room for me to play this role, and it is rare for me to play the villain role. I really love and hate it."

This is exactly what Lin Baoyi is pursuing now, jumping out of his comfort zone, just like leaving TVB that year. "TVB is a very safe place, and I personally want to start making some changes."

01.

As early as 2019, the director had asked a friend to hand the story to Lin Baoyi. The content was not too long, but it was simple in two or three pages. It was only at that time that Lin Baoyi was preparing for the drama "Bridge of Sighs", which was his first time as a producer. "There are many things to deal with every day, and it is really inseparable from making a movie."

After many years, at a party with Louis Koo, the other party talked about this project again. After many revisions, the script has gradually matured and was invested and produced by Louis Koo Company. After the break, Louis Koo sent him the script.That night, Lin Baoyi read the whole story very carefully.

"Under the Sun" is based on the events in the homes for the aged that have caused a sensation throughout Hong Kong, including the fact that in 2015, the elderly in Cambridge nursing home were stripped naked and washed in the open air, and in 2014, Zhang Jianhua, the former director of Cambridge Home, was suspected of sexually assaulting female mentally retarded people. Zhang Jianhua is the prototype of Lin Baoyi’s role as Zhang Jianhua.

Before taking on this movie, Lin Baoyi didn’t think too much about the future box office results, simply hoping to make more people pay attention to the real events behind it.

The first time he saw Under the Sun was at an overseas film festival. "After reading it, I felt a sense of powerlessness. I really wonder, as an ordinary citizen, what can I do? Fortunately, I am an actor. I can turn this real thing into a role and let more people know that this kind of thing may have been happening around us that we have never paid attention to. "

Finally, after the film was released, the real incident was repeatedly discussed by the media and the public. On March 25th this year, the case was retried and Zhang Jianhua was convicted.

Lin Baoyi later talked about the result. "I was very angry when I saw the news. Although he was convicted, he was only fined. This is the first time I played a role I hate."

02.

"Under the Sun" is to let the audience follow the reporter and expose the incident a little bit. Therefore, there are not many scenes in Lin Baoyi, and even in the first half, it is almost hidden in the background.

To this end, he and the director specially studied the direction of the role before shooting. The focus of this play is not on the dean. "For actors, there is enough space for this role, but too much is not good." When the plot goes to the second half, it seems to usher in a bright ending. Who ever thought that the dean was the big bad guy? "This will put a lot of pressure on the audience."

In the movie, Zhang Jianhua is an amblyopic person. In order to have a more realistic performance during the performance, Lin Baoyi specially asked the director to contact an amblyopic person and follow him to experience life before starting. Even when chatting and eating, Lin Baoyi has been observing each other’s words and deeds, and at the same time, he doesn’t forget to ask him how he feels about seeing things.

After really entering the set, Lin Baoyi integrated what he saw and thought into his performance. Because many people with amblyopia and normal vision have different viewpoints, his performance will be a little crooked and his eyes will be treated differently.

Zhang Jianhua, played by Lin Baoyi, is not only bad, but also bad. Even from his point of view, there is quite a kind of "I am right, I have difficulties".

Especially the announcement scene that came out of the court.

"I thought before I played, I tried to shape the dean into a’ devil among demons’ in that scene." Therefore, he asked the prop group for a piece of paper — — That’s something that’s not in the script. "It’s all written by the dean early in the morning and he wants to tell the media." In Lin Baoyi’s setting, he felt that the dean had long known that he was innocent.

Therefore, Lin Baoyi hates this role from the bottom of his heart. However, in order to be more realistic, he will go to Zhang Jianhua’s office in advance, put on headphones, and listen to a piano piece "The Mystery Song" No.1. "Just listen for 1 or 2 minutes, and slowly summon the Dean."

Lin Baoyi didn’t deliberately remember his lines, but called Zhang Jianhua out in his way and felt it with the thinking of the role.

Lin Baoyi filmed for more than 10 days, which was also his most painful period. Before filming in the past, he would go to the vegetable market to buy food and even exercise, which was his favorite time, but during the filming period of Under the Sun, "I didn’t want to go out at all, so I went back and forth between the set and home, and I didn’t want others to see me so horrible."

After Lin Baoyi filmed all the scenes, "I confirmed with the director again and again whether it was really finished." After getting a positive answer, he didn’t go home that day. He went to the barber shop first and said goodbye to this role completely.

03.

Although Lin Baoyi didn’t win the Academy Award for Best Actor for Under the Sun, he has always been a good actor in the eyes of the audience. As early as the TVB period, he handed over many excellent works, such as A Wonderful Hand and a Kind Heart, A Mind-reading Detective, and Jewellery, and he has already won the title of "Seeing the Emperor" with war and beauty.

These achievements can’t satisfy Lin Baoyi. Almost at the hottest time, he chose to leave TVB, just because, "It’s too safe, I want to jump out and give myself some changes."

In the early days, Lin Baoyi was often praised for acting naturally. He sometimes felt complacent and thought that this might be his talent. "I am not performing, but I am living." For him, all this is far from enough.

Until the filming of the series "Margaret and David Mung Bean", Lin Baoyi’s understanding of acting changed a little, which opened another experience of filming. "You just put yourself into it, and then you use your intuition. People use their intuition to do every reaction, every micro-expression. " Then to the later drama "Bridge of Sighs", this kind of natural and true technique was brought to the extreme by him, and he had already merged with the role.

Even in such an extreme role in Under the Sun, Lin Baoyi still told himself, "Relax and be natural."

Today, Lin Baoyi is very keen to cooperate with the new director. After working with the director of Margaret and David Mung Bean, he boldly came up with Bridge of Sighs. The same is true for the director of Under the Sun. The new directors always give him a lot of excitement and ideas.

Although interviews in the past were generally asked if he would play a police lawyer again, Lin Baoyi used to say that he could look at his past works, but now he has changed his mind. "This kind of role is ok, as long as the role and story are new."

But he still can’t challenge comedy. "It takes a lot of skill to make the audience laugh. I can’t, that’s not my strong point. "

Today, Lin Baoyi, like his friend Louis Koo, has already set up a production company on his own, but there are few new works after Bridge of Sighs. "I’m still reading the script, and the script is really important. Louis Koo reads the script very quickly. I really can’t. I have to read it at least three or four times. " More importantly, he wants to set aside enough time for his life, enjoy life, feel life, and then integrate these experiences into the performance.

　　Zhongxin. com, Guangzhou, June 6 (Cheng Jingwei, Tang Chuangbin, Zhang Yitao) The Information Office of Guangzhou Public Security Bureau reported on the 6 th that the national college entrance examination will be held in 2018, and the Guangzhou police have intensified their crackdown on illegal and criminal activities related to the college entrance examination. On June 5, the police arrested three suspects who were suspected of selling cheating equipment in exams and engaging in fraudulent activities of selling "college entrance examination questions".

　　Recently, Guangzhou police received a report that some people were selling cheating devices such as shields, radiators and "eraser receivers" in QQ groups. After investigation and analysis, the police sorted out the key target clues related to the "exam-assisting" of the college entrance examination. Among them, some people bought and sold cheating equipment for the college entrance examination, and some pretended to be escort personnel to commit fraud.

　　On June 5, the police launched a network-closing operation, and arrested three suspects, including Fang Mou and Chen Mou, who were suspected of selling cheating equipment for exams and engaging in fraudulent activities of selling "college entrance examination questions", and seized a batch of cheating equipment such as transmitters, "glasses" (used for scanning examination questions), "eraser receivers" and mobile phones on the spot.

　　At present, the case is still under investigation.

　　Guangzhou police reminded that it is a crime to buy, sell and use cheating equipment in exams. Those who cheat in the college entrance examination will be investigated for legal responsibility according to law once they are found. The majority of candidates and parents should enhance their anti-fraud awareness and beware of criminals using the "answers to college entrance examination papers" to defraud money; If you find clues about selling cheating equipment or selling test paper answers, please call 110 in time to report to the public security organ.

　　Guangzhou police pointed out that the public security organs urged those engaged in related illegal and criminal activities to surrender themselves to the public security organs as soon as possible.

Johnny Chen

Under the background of the rapid development of platform economy and digital technology, do the new professional groups represented by selling riders face the risk of technical unemployment? This issue of "Investigation and Research" is based on interviews and investigations on the rider’s labor process, and at the same time, it organizes multi-perspective discussions in the industry and academia to explore more topics about the development of intelligent society.

According to the data of "China Sharing Economy Development Report 2021" released by the National Information Center, there will be about 84 million sharing economy service providers in China in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of about 7.7%. The sharing economic service providers here mainly include new employment forms such as take-away riders, online car drivers and couriers. At the beginning of 2023, the All-China Federation of Trade Unions released the results of the ninth national survey on the status of the workforce. The data shows that there are currently 84 million workers in the new employment form in China. The number of take-away riders reached 13 million, accounting for 15% of the total workers in the new employment form. During the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of take-away riders increased sharply. Take Meituan as an example. From 2020 to 2022, the number of riders increased from 4.7 million to 6.24 million, an increase of 32.8%.

The large-scale rise of workers with new employment forms is closely related to the prosperity and development of platform economy. The rapid development of platform economy is inseparable from the rapid progress of artificial intelligence technology. As the core driving force of the fourth industrial revolution, artificial intelligence technology is setting off a global wave of science and technology, which not only becomes the strategic commanding height of scientific and technological competition between countries, but also profoundly changes all aspects of human social production and daily life. However, the wide application of artificial intelligence technology in the platform economy not only promotes the production progress and the convenience of life, but also causes people’s worries about the "skills removal" and "technical unemployment" caused by technological progress.

In July 2021, Meituan revealed at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference that unmanned delivery vehicles will develop into large-scale applications in 3-5 years. UAV service is also expected to appear in more cities within 3-5 years. The rapid development of unmanned distribution inevitably makes people worry about "de-skilling" and being replaced. However, the relevant personnel of the US Mission also said that unmanned distribution and non-contact economy are an ecological concept. Only scale and normalization can solve the cost problem, and manpower is still needed before all the advantages of innovation and technological iteration appear, so a large number of unemployment is unlikely. This can’t completely eliminate people’s worries about "de-skill" and "technical unemployment" caused by technological progress. In view of the huge scale of take-away riders, automation, digitalization and unmanned are imperative, it is necessary for us to go back to the problem that worries us and re-understand the labor process of "de-skill" and take-away riders.

The Essence of "De-skilling" and Tacit Knowledge in Labor Process

The idea of "de-skilling" originated from American economist harry braverman. In his view, Taylor’s scientific management is to concentrate scattered handicraft knowledge on employers, and then distribute it to workers in the form of detailed instruction books. Braverman described it as "separation of concept and implementation". Therefore, the essence of "de-skill" is the separation of concept and execution, that is, the separation of hand and brain in work.

"De-skilling" means the degeneration of workers. With the mechanization and automation of industrial production process, especially the infinite subdivision of work, workers in specific positions have less and less skills to master, and then become part of the production line instead of a complete person. Workers no longer use their brains at work, but execute orders like parts or tools of machines. As a result, workers become more and more stupid.

Back to the labor process of the takeaway rider. A large number of studies at home and abroad have revealed the trend of artificial intelligence, big data and algorithms in strengthening platform supervision ability, reducing workers’ autonomy and "de-skill". As mentioned above, "de-skill" is essentially the separation of hands and brains at work, and the result is the degradation of workers’ cognitive ability; However, in actual observation, the performance of takeaway riders is not the case. One of the important reasons is that the rider’s "tacit knowledge" in his work is ignored.

"Tacit knowledge" means "we know more than what we can express and formulate". For a long time, the "tacit knowledge" of workers is hard to find, but it plays a huge role. The advantage of "tacit knowledge" is that it comes from a specific situation rather than a general situation, so it can judge the causes of specific problems in the labor process more quickly and directly and find solutions. This characteristic, which originates from a specific situation and is inseparable from human intuition and judgment, makes the rider’s labor process unable to be simplified into "rules, regulations and formulas" according to the requirements of scientific management. The process of using "tacit knowledge" is precisely the process of combining hands and brains. Therefore, food delivery will not make takeaway riders stupid, but will make them "gain certain growth": "It has not only changed the situation in my family, but also changed my life, and also changed my personality, making me a lot more mature and stable, and also become much stronger."

Simply put, the rider’s tacit knowledge in the process of food delivery is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the brain map, second, the situational experience and third, the communication skills.

The first is the "brain map". Most riders’ distribution route planning recommended by the external selling platform App has experienced a transition from full compliance to independent planning. At the beginning of food delivery, new riders will deliver food in strict accordance with the delivery route recommended by the takeaway platform App because they are unfamiliar with the food delivery process, area and time. But when they are familiar with it, they will deliver food according to the distribution route accumulated in their own minds, because they know how to plan the distribution route faster: "We started to deliver food according to the systematic planning, and after three months of familiarity, we followed the planned route in our brains."

Followed by "situational experience." Riders can make good judgments on specific situations because they repeatedly deal with people and things in the process of delivering food, which enables them to continuously accumulate various typical "situational experiences". This kind of experience, like the "brain map" and the "communication skills" mentioned later, can’t be clearly expressed, but they all play a key role: "We will encounter all kinds of problems in the process of delivering food. For example, if some merchants are slow to deliver food, you can take it from other homes first, or the customers are close. It is ok for me to deliver it to him in a few minutes and then come back to pick up his meals."

Finally, there is "communication skills". Riders need to practice superb communication skills, because one of the skills they use most in the process of food delivery is communication, such as communication with the front desk of merchants, communication with security guards at the entrance of supermarkets and communities, and communication with customers. Good communication can not only improve the efficiency of food delivery, but also get favorable service comments: "Because it is a service industry, it is better to communicate with guests. If you have a bad temper, it is easy to have language disputes with guests … If you don’t communicate well, you will definitely be complained. Communication in our business is more important than food delivery. "

Therefore, from the perspective of using "tacit knowledge" in the process of food delivery, that is, the combination of hand and brain is needed in the work, the delivery of take-away food is not "de-skilled". Good communication with merchants/security guards/customers, human brain planning of distribution routes, and "situational experience" needed in each link of meal taking/delivery all require takeaway riders to use their hands and brains and make good use of the "tacit knowledge" they have accumulated in their work. The cognitive ability of riders has not deteriorated at work, and they have not become "more and more stupid".

The factory that can’t go back and the desire of "complete workers"

During the two sessions of the National People’s Congress in 2022, Zhang Xinghai, deputy to the National People’s Congress and chairman of Xiaokang Group, said that in recent years, industries such as take-away, e-commerce and webcasting have attracted a large number of young people to find jobs; Express delivery and take-away industry "involution" to graduate students to compete; Young people are no longer willing to go to work in factories, which leads to the increasingly serious problem of hollowing out industrial workers. Zhang Xinghai suggested that the government, enterprises and all walks of life should make joint efforts to encourage young people to become industrial workers, so as to alleviate the difficulties in recruiting and employing workers in the manufacturing industry. However, the main reason why riders are unwilling to enter the factory and are willing to deliver takeout is that the delivery of takeout is not "unskilled" compared with factory workers, but requires them to use their hands and brains.

While there is a "blowout" of employment on various Internet platforms, the traditional manufacturing industry is indeed experiencing a "labor shortage". Cao Dewang, the founder of Fuyao Group, also expressed his feelings for this: "Nowadays, young people would rather send takeout than go to work in a factory. This is the current dilemma facing the manufacturing industry." In this regard, Professor Wen Xiaoyi of China Institute of Labor Relations pointed out: "In the past, young and middle-aged laborers who were active in factory production lines are constantly moving from offline to online, which has made great changes in China’s economic structure and situation. In the past, going to work in coastal factories was the first choice for countless young people to realize their urban dreams. Nowadays, sending express delivery and take-away in big cities is becoming a career priority. "

For the phenomenon that young people "prefer to take delivery rather than go to work in factories", most studies take the high salary return of the platform economy and the strict management of the manufacturing industry as the main reasons. Indeed, the income return of takeaway riders is no less than that of traditional manufacturing. It is reported that most workers in factories in coastal areas earn 4,000-8,000 yuan a month. In contrast, riders can get 7000-8000 yuan per month, and many people can even exceed 10,000 yuan. More importantly, although it is equally hard, being a takeaway rider is rarely controlled, more free, and can also take time off: "The factory is too strict and has no rest. Except for legal holidays, the state can’t deduct (punish) it, so I will give you a day off. It’s more than 6 thousand yuan a month, which is similar to here. But in comparison, it is free here. "

The "local workers" described by Marx may be the original prototype of "de-skill", that is, "workers who have been engaged in the same simple operation all their lives turn their whole bodies into automatic one-sided organs of this operation". The production line invented by Henry Ford shows more intuitively that modern factories no longer need the "whole body" of workers, but "one-sided organs". The design principle of the assembly line invented by Ford is to "arrange tools and people according to working procedures so as to complete the assembly of spare parts in the shortest possible time". Obviously, people are reduced to tool-like existence on the assembly line. Therefore, the workers on the assembly line will inevitably encounter the problem of hand-brain separation and the cognitive degradation caused by it.

However, Marx also pointed out that "conscious life activities directly distinguish people from animal life activities" when distinguishing people from animals. The difference between people and animals lies in that people can engage in free and conscious conscious activities, and the difference between people and tools lies in that people have valuable cognitive and creative abilities. Therefore, people are more willing to take delivery than those jobs that make people stupid on the assembly line, precisely because people naturally want to use their hands and brains at work. Because of the existence of "tacit knowledge", delivery can make riders feel that they are "complete workers" rather than "one-sided organs" than entering the factory. This may also be the reason why riders feel "freedom" at work.

Although the take-away rider does not really face the dilemma of "de-skill", it is undeniable that the rider engaged in take-away distribution may not have high academic qualifications and high skills. According to the results of the ninth survey on the status of the national workforce released by the All-China Federation of Trade Unions, the academic qualifications of couriers and take-away distributors are concentrated in high school and below. It is not difficult to find out from the employment report of Meituan riders during the epidemic period released by Meituan that the ranking of riders’ sources from high to low is factory workers, salespeople, entrepreneurs or self-employed small businesses or catering industry employees. Among them, factory workers, salespeople, and catering employees may also be low-skilled workers. How to let more people accumulate "tacit knowledge" in their work, show free and conscious labor and realize the coordinated development of man and machine is the key issue in the era of artificial intelligence.

(The author is an associate professor at the School of Humanities and Development, China Agricultural University)

China Social Sciences Journal, August 24, 2023.

1905 movie network news Directed by Lian Tao and starring Crystal and Fan Yichen, the box office has exceeded 30 million yuan since it was released on June 21st.On June 28th, a Marvel Comics blockbuster was released, and 50% of the films were divided on the same day, posing a threat to other films that have already been released. However, in the past two days of the weekend, the box office of "Disc Fairy" has been attacked. On June 29th, the number of people watching movies reached 147,000, and on June 30th, the number of people watching movies reached 115,000, both of which were the champions of domestic films in the same period!

Especially on June 29th, Disc Fairy ranked fourth in the single-day box office. You know, when Disc Fairy was first released, strong films gathered, which made it only ninth in the single-day box office on its opening day. However, in the second week, with the heavy introduction of blockbusters, the single-day box office ranking of "Disc Fairy" did not drop, but rose, rising to the fourth place step by step.

Judging from the weekend’s performance, "Disc Fairy" ranks first in the domestic films of the same period in terms of attendance, attendance, average number of people per game and box office! At present, it is already the champion of domestic horror films in 2019, which is five times the box office of the second place, even higher than the sum of all domestic horror films that have been released this year!

In the box office list of horror films in China film history, Disc Fairy has also occupied a place. It is currently ranked sixth, and as long as it can maintain this high-speed rising momentum, when the box office exceeds 35 million, it is expected to rank among the TOP5 domestic horror film box office list.

Some netizens summed up that domestic horror movies are always inseparable from the scary "three axes": turning around and encountering ghosts, waking up and dreaming, looking for children. A website once conducted a survey on "Why domestic horror movies don’t scare you", and 70% of the audience thought that "the plot insulted IQ, and they wanted to laugh after watching it"; 50% people think that "creation is limited and many terrorist elements cannot be expressed"; And 41% of the audience think that "the performance is poor, and it is not scary to scream by beautiful women."

Crystal plays a late-night live female anchor and a single mother in the film. After she and her daughter moved into a rented house, her daughter accidentally and inexplicably triggered the mechanism in the room, so the mother and daughter suffered a series of mysterious and strange events … …Different from ordinary domestic horror films, Disc Fairy has an unexpected reversal at the end of the film, leaving the audience with room for imagination. Horror movies don’t just have to be scary, but they can give the audience a space for aftertaste and "fear" on the psychological level, which is the characteristic that an excellent horror movie should have.

　　[car home’s preliminary sea election] Before, two new and old models sold at the same time have been introduced, but this topic is still unfinished. Lancer is one of Mitsubishi’s leading models, and its great achievements in the WRC battlefield are well known. It also has a short history, while Hyundai Sonata and Elantra are both important models in the global market, and they all have the phenomenon of two generations living under one roof in China.

　

　　Of course, we hope that domestic joint venture manufacturers can keep pace with the times, but we can’t be too extreme about the coexistence of old and new products. After all, the price reduction of old products has made consumers get more practical products. In fact, this phenomenon exists not only in China, but also in other countries, which can be regarded as some comfort to those "angry youths".

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First generation Lancer

"Two-door models of the first generation Lancer"

　　The first generation of Lancer evolved from Mitsubishi Colt Galant model, and came out in 1973, positioned between Minica and ganlante. Its beautiful appearance conforms to aerodynamic design and its performance is not bad. It participated in the SouthernCross Rally Rally in Australia in the same year and won a comprehensive victory. In the second year, it participated in the 22nd Safari Cross Country Race and Kenya Cross Country Race and won a comprehensive victory, so the first generation of Lancer also forged a relationship with the cross country rally.

　　The first generation Lancer has four-door version and three-door version, using 4G42 engine, with three kinds of displacements of 1.2 liters, 1.4 liters and 1.6 liters. Among them, the 1.6-liter GSR model with two-door version also uses double carburetors, with a maximum power of 110 horsepower and a vehicle weight of only 825 kilograms, so its power performance is very outstanding.

Second generation Lancer

　　Six years later, in 1979, the second-generation Lancer went on the market, adopting a new reverse balance shaft design to minimize the vibration of the engine when it was working, and at that time, a four-bar independent suspension was adopted, which not only enhanced the comfort, but also laid the foundation for the excellent handling afterwards.

　　By 1980, Lancer had five kinds of power to choose from, namely, 1.2L, 1.4L, 1.6L, 1.8L and 1.8T. This was also the first Lancer model with turbocharged engine and rear wheel drive. In 1981, Mitsubishi added an intercooler to this turbocharged engine, with a maximum power of 165 HP, which was also welcomed by fans and racers, and its 1.6 GSR model was also welcomed. It is said that Lancer is often used as an escape tool by criminals because of its good performance and fast speed.

Third generation Lancer

　　In 1982, the third-generation Lancer based on Mitsubishi Mirage was released, which was not much different from the later models of the second generation. In overseas markets, it was called Lancer Fiore, while the Mirage model was sold as a five-door hatchback at the same time. In the Australian market, the appearance was modified and finally sold as a Mitsubishi Colt model.

Fourth generation Lancer

　　In the following year, in 1983, Mitsubishi introduced the fourth generation Lancer model, and Mirage and Lancer also became the same model. Its appearance was close to fashion. A 1.6-liter turbocharged EFI engine calculated by computer had a maximum power of 120 HP, and Mitsubishi’s 1.8-liter diesel and 1.5-liter MD (Modulated Displacement) also made their debut. In 1985, the appearance of the travel version of Lancer enriched the product line. A year later, the full-time four-wheel drive version of Lancer was released. This model was also widely sought after overseas and in Japan, and achieved good sales in both business and home markets.

Fifth generation Lancer

　　In 1988, the fifth generation Lancer went on the market. It followed the shape design of Goran at that time, and its appearance became dynamic and smooth. The streamlined design created excellent aerodynamics. This generation of models also improved greatly in terms of interior and seating space. Five-door hatchback models joined Lancer’s camp. In Australia, all models are called Lancer, while in Japan, they are called Mirage Aspire. Similarly, full-time four-wheel drive technology has also been applied to the fifth-generation Lancer model.

Sixth generation

　　In 1991, the sixth generation Lancer came into the market, which was full of strong rally atmosphere. The configuration of ABS, electric seats and four-wheel disc brakes was very advanced at that time, and the newly designed 1.6-liter 16-valve engine was very leading in its class. At the same time, Mitsubishi also built a 1.6-liter V6 engine with the smallest cylinder volume, which was the first in the world. MIVEC (Intelligent Variable Valve Timing and Lift Control System) is also the first time to be applied to Lancer’s engine. The Lancer EVO(Evolution) model, which is highly sought after by car fans, started from this generation. The sixth generation Lancer has achieved good market results in Australia, the Philippines, Europe and Latin America.

● Southeast Lingshuai is based on the sixth generation Mitsubishi Lancer.

"Southeast Lingshuai"

　　Taiwan Province Zhonghua Automobile, which was funded by Mitsubishi, introduced the sixth generation Lancer model from Mitsubishi of Japan, and after localization, it obtained a very large sales volume in Taiwan Province. So in 2003, Southeast Automobile of the mainland introduced this Taiwan Province version of Mitsubishi Lancer and named it Lioncel.

"V3 Lingyue"

　　After several years’ development and strength enhancement of Southeast Auto, today’s "Lingshuai" has become a "V3 Lingyue" with independent intellectual property rights. Its appearance still retains the characteristics of the prototype Lancer, but it has made some minor modifications in the front and rear lights and body details, which is more energetic than Lingshuai, and the V3 Lingyue is also younger and rounder in the interior.

　　As a family car, V3 Lingyue has a wheelbase of 2500mm, which is at a disadvantage in the same class. Therefore, it also directly shapes the crowded rear space. The power system adopts an in-line four-cylinder engine with a displacement of 1.5L, with variable valve timing technology, and the maximum power is 120 HP, which can be matched with a 5-speed manual CVT with a 6-speed analog gear. All the models of V3 Lingyue are below 100,000, and the price of the minimum 1.5L sailing version is 59,800, so the overall price of this model is quite attractive.

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> > > Related links:

The overall level has improved significantly! Measuring southeast V3 lingyue 1.5MT
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New Engine and Sports Seat Test Drive V3 Lingyue Style Edition
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More pure and comfortable style! Test drive Southeast V3 Lingyue CVT
//www.autohome.com.cn/drive/201004/105246.html

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Seventh generation Lancer

　　In 1995, the seventh-generation Lancer, which is more beautiful in shape and more powerful in performance, went on the market, also with a car and a travel version (the travel version is called Libero in Japan). In terms of configuration, this model is equipped with an automatic air conditioner with a liquid crystal display, which was also very advanced in the mid-1990s. Mitsubishi MIVEC (Intelligent Variable Valve Timing and Lift Control System) was also applied to the engine, and the GSR version with turbocharging was sold until the late 1990s. EVO models based on the seventh generation Lancer are very popular with young fans, and modified suspension, exhaust system and sound system are also popular on this generation of models.

Eighth generation Lancer

　　In 2000, the eighth generation model came into the market. It was named Lancer Cedia in Japan, representing the Millennium edition model. It took a more luxurious and comfortable trend, with the shadow of a medium-sized car in appearance and interior. In terms of power, there were seven engines with displacement of 1.3L, 1.6L, 1.8L, 2.0L and 2.4L to choose from, including the 1.8L model of 4G93 and the turbocharged version with gasoline direct injection.

Ninth generation Lancer

　　In 2005, Mitsubishi Motors released the Concept T-X concept car at the Tokyo Motor Show, and the ninth generation Lancer was developed based on this concept car. In 2007, a new generation of Lancer was released at the Detroit Auto Show in the same year, and then went on sale in March 2007. The front face of the new Lancer also became Mitsubishi’s latest family face. The 9th-generation Lancer has 4 models with 2.0L and 2.4L displacement in China, and the price ranges from 218,000 to 285,000. It is worth noting that Lancer’s EVO model has developed to the tenth generation, but the latest model of the ordinary version is the ninth generation.

● Southeast Mitsubishi lancer ex

　　The Wing God introduced by Southeast Auto last year is based on the ninth generation Lancer model, and some localized changes have been made on the basis of the prototype. The appearance is mainly to weaken the "big mouth". Although many people accuse it of destroying the domineering of the prototype, this change is still of positive significance to the Wing God, which is the main family car market. After all, its strong personality is not conducive to being accepted by more families, and the overall coordination after the revision is very good.

　　Wing Shen’s interior is convenient to maintain the good workmanship of Japanese cars, and the wheelbase of 2635mm reaches the normal level of current compact cars, so it is no problem to meet the general household in space. The steering wheel shift paddles are used in the top model, which is the embodiment of its sports temperament to a certain extent, and the knee airbags and automatic air conditioning standard on all models are the highlights of the car.

　　Wing Shen adopts the engine imported from Mitsubishi, with a total displacement of 1.8L and 2.0L, and the maximum power is 136 HP and 152 HP respectively. It can be matched with a five-speed manual or CVT continuously variable gearbox, and the ASC body stability program of the top model increases the safety in dynamic driving. The overall selling price of Wing God is 109,800-169,800, which is comparable to that of other joint venture models.

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> > > Related links:

Shape is the biggest selling point. Test the imported Mitsubishi Lancer EX 2.0.
//www.autohome.com.cn/drive/200902/55542.html

The definition of external rigidity and internal softness measures lancer ex 2.0+CVT.
//www.autohome.com.cn/drive/201001/92809.html

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　　Sonata Sonata is a mid-level car designed by Hyundai in South Korea. The name "Sonata" comes from Italian, which means playing music. It represents an optimistic, progressive and perfect attitude towards life. Hyundai has also concentrated a lot of experience in developing Sonata models, which is also an important model to reverse the poor reputation of Hyundai.

Sonata of the first generation (y)　

　　The first generation Sonata was born in 1985, and its shape was developed on the basis of modern Stellar. It adopted 1.8L and 2.0L displacement models with maximum power of 95 HP and 131 HP respectively. The first generation Sonata has been recognized by consumers and achieved great success, with a total of 582,822 vehicles sold.

Second Sonata (Y2)

Sonata of the Second Generation

"Sonata of the second generation after a small change"

　　Three years later, in 1988, Hyundai Motor introduced the second-generation Sonata model and landed in the United States for the first time. In the American market, it adopted a Mitsubishi 2.4L inline four-cylinder engine, which was upgraded to a Mitsubishi 6G72 V6 engine with a displacement of 3.0L in 1990. In 1992, a 2.0L naturally aspirated engine replaced the previous 2.4L model. The second-generation Sonata was launched in Korean in January 1988, and it entered Canada and the United States in September of the same year. In 1991, Hyundai carried out cosmetic surgery for this model in order to replace Stellar as a "large family car".

Third Generation Sonata (Y3)

"The Third Sonata"

"the third generation sonata after the change"

　　The third-generation Sonata, code-named Y3, made its debut in 1993, making its appearance design more streamlined. In most markets, the car is equipped with one of the four-cylinder engines with a displacement of 2.0L, with a maximum power of 105 HP, but there are also models equipped with Mitsubishi V6 3.0L engine for a few countries. In 1996, Hyundai performed a cosmetic surgery for the third-generation Sonata, the changes were mainly concentrated on the front face and tail, and the power was also slightly upgraded to 125 horsepower. In the first year after the change, the sales volume increased by 25%.

The fourth generation Sonata (EF)

　

"The Fourth Sonata"

"the fourth generation sonata after the change"

　　In 1998, the fourth generation Sonata went on the market. This model used a lot of advanced technologies of modern cars, and sold well in the same class for a long time. After the change in 2001, it was rated as the most satisfactory product by J.D.Power for two consecutive years.

"The latest version of the fourth generation Sonata in China" Monica Ming Yu ""

　　The Sonata model introduced by Beijing Hyundai in 2002 is the fourth generation product, and it also has a good performance in official cars, taxis and other markets. Now the car has been "upgraded" by Beijing Hyundai, mainly focusing on the appearance of newly designed headlights and taillights, and as a "Monica", the range is 114,800-139,800. Although it is a little small for a medium-sized car, the price-performance ratio is good.

　　At present, Monica Mingyu has two engines with displacement of 1.8L and 2.0L to choose from, which can be equipped with a 5-speed manual or 4-speed automatic gearbox. The interior still continues the design of the fourth-generation Sonata, with no luxurious assembly and practical emphasis. The wheelbase of 2700mm ensures a good seating space, which is very sufficient for family cars.

The fifth generation Sonata (NF)

　　In 2004, Hyundai Motor released the NF model of Sonata and released it to all parts of the world in 2005, and Beijing Hyundai also introduced the modified model at the same time. However, due to Hyundai Motor’s underestimation of the China market, its configuration did not keep pace with the American market, which is one of the reasons for the poor sales of Sonata NF after its listing. In addition, as a medium-sized car, Hyundai brand also had a negative impact on sales.

　　In 2009, Beijing Hyundai specially launched an upgraded version of the Sonata NFC for the China market, named as "Sonata Lingxiang". The car has been comprehensively upgraded in appearance and interior, incorporating the latest family characteristics of modern cars, and the price ranges from 155,800 to 228,800. Although the Korean brand configuration of the medium-sized car with the same price is higher, the modern brand has become the biggest constraint factor in the domestic medium-sized car market.

　　Lingxiang is equipped with an in-line four-cylinder engine with a displacement of 2.0L or 2.4L, with the maximum power of 165 HP and 174 HP respectively. The 2.0L model has a 5-speed manual transmission and a 4-speed automatic transmission, while the 2.4L model is equipped with a 5-speed automatic transmission. In addition, the high-equipped model also has safety equipment such as 8 airbags and electronic stability program, which is superior to the medium-sized car at the same price in other aspects.

Sonata of the sixth generation

Sonata of the Sixth Generation

　　Now, the sixth-generation Sonata has been listed in South Korea, with a younger design and a more advanced power system. We will see its beauty at the Beijing Auto Show, which opens in a few days, and will bring readers more detailed reports.

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> > > Related links:

Market positioning is very accurate. Test drive Beijing Hyundai MOINCA Mingyu.
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Non-mainstream Expressiveness Test SONATA· Lingxiang 2.4TOP
//www.autohome.com.cn/drive/200904/58672.html

Analysis of preheating 2011 Sonata official drawings before listing in China
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First generation elantra

"The first generation Elantra after the change (Part II)"

　　Relatively speaking, Hyundai’s Elantra is a relatively young brand, which was founded in 1990 with the goal of competing with Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla in the family car market. The first generation Elantra has the shadow of a contemporary car in appearance design, and it is not as old as other cars with a long history. Its power system is powered by a 1.6L inline four-cylinder 16-valve engine provided by Mitsubishi, with a maximum power of 113 horsepower and an acceleration time of 9.5 seconds from 0 to 97 km/h. The car was slightly modified in 1992.

Second generation elantra

"The second generation Elantra after the change (II)"

　　The second generation Elantra was released in 1995. There are two versions of car and station wagon, which are relatively advanced in body design and configuration at that time. At first, the car was equipped with a 1.5L α engine and a 1.8L β engine with maximum power of 107 HP and 128 HP respectively. The car was redesigned in 1999. In Australia, the travel version of the car called "Lantra" is very popular with consumers.

Third generation elantra

　　In 2001, the third generation Elantra was officially launched. In 2004, the car was slightly modified, mainly in some small parts such as front and rear lights, air intake grille and engine cover. Because each generation of Elantra has a mid-term change, many people think that this is the sixth generation, but these small changes are not enough to subvert the first generation.

　　This is the familiar Elantra model introduced by Beijing Hyundai. Since its launch, Elantra has achieved great success in the family car market with its excellent cost performance and spacious space, and it has also performed well in the taxi market. Elantra, which mainly uses a 1.6L engine for home use, has less than 90,000 minimum models and only 100,000 top models. Although the body is older, it is still relatively cost-effective at this price.

The fourth generation elantra

　　The fourth generation Elantra went on the market in 2007, that is, the familiar "Elantra Elantra Elantra" model introduced and produced by Beijing Hyundai. Because the residual heat of the previous generation model is not small, Beijing Hyundai did not immediately stop the sales of the previous generation model after the new model was put into production.

　　Elantra Elantra’s styling has changed the old-fashioned style of the previous generation, and its smooth and dynamic styling has really attracted consumers’ attention. Therefore, this model has also achieved excellent sales results and continued to sell well, becoming the master of Beijing’s modern new generation, Hua Dan. Of course, the excellent cost performance of Korean models is also a decisive factor. The price of all models of Elantra is 99,800-119,800, which is more advantageous than the competitors with the same configuration, and with the youthful and energetic appearance, it is very pleasing to the people who pursue benefits.

　　Elantra’s wheelbase of 2650mm has reached the standard of compact cars. For home users, Elantra’s space level is good, and the overall atmosphere of the interior gives people a warm feeling. It is equipped with a gamma engine with a displacement of 1.6L and a maximum power of 123 HP, which can be matched with a 5-speed manual or 4-speed automatic gearbox.

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> > > Related links:

Closer to home testing Beijing Hyundai ELANTRA Elantra Elantra Elantrahttp://www.autohome.com.cn/drive/200805/39212.html

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Summary:

　　There is no doubt that Mitsubishi’s Lancer model is well-known in the world car world, and it is one of the key targets of many car fans’ modification both at home and abroad. Mitsubishi will further carry forward this model while retaining the classics, and introduce the latest model "Wing God" into China; Although the modern Sonata and Elantra models have "two generations under one roof", they are at least manufacturers that keep pace with the times, bringing the latest products to China and letting consumers taste the benefits of Korean cars. It is said that the introduction of the latest generation Sonata that subverts the traditional design is basically a foregone conclusion. I believe we will see the latest modern models soon. (Text/car home Sun Tao)

　　On June 19th, local time, relevant EU agencies announced that the European Commission had initiated excessive deficit procedures for seven countries, namely France, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Malta, because these countries had excessive new debts and high deficits.

　　According to the report released by Standard & Poor’s, an international credit rating agency, on May 31st, it is estimated that from 2024 to 2026, the budget deficit in France will account for 4.6% of GDP on average, higher than the previous forecast of 3.9%. By 2027, the French budget deficit will still reach 3.5% of GDP, which is higher than the French government’s target of 2.9%. (General Desk reporter Kang Yubin)

Original title: Resume A shares in 2018

Image source: vision china

Text | Suning Wealth Information, Author | Wang Chen, Gu Huijun

Looking back on 2018, under the influence of a series of internal and external factors, such as "deleveraging" and "US dollar interest rate hike", A shares began to fall all the way from February to the end of the year, which can be described as miserable (see Figure 1). Below, this paper makes a resumption of the stock market in 2018 from four aspects: valuation, performance, capital and market sentiment, to help investors take care of the present and future of A shares.

Valuation: Looking at the historical low vertically, looking at the global depression horizontally.

We analyze the valuation of A shares based on a dimension of 2 (index, industry) ×2(PE, PB).

PE of main index of a shares:By analyzing the historical PE data of Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 and Growth Enterprise Market Index (the data of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index since 2002, and the data of other indexes since their release), it can be found that the current valuation levels of each index are in a low position: the PE of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index are 10% and 12% respectively; The PE of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shenzhen Component Index are relatively high, accounting for 25% and 30% respectively in history. CSI 500 and GEM refer to PE at the bottom of history.

PB of main index of A shares:According to PB data, the indexes are also at historical lows. The PB of Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Shanghai 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, CSI 500 and Growth Enterprise Market Index are located at 1%, 9%, 0%, 15%, 1% and 13% respectively in history.

CITIC’s first-class industry PE (see Figure 2):PE valuation of all industries is at the bottom of history. Among them, the PE level of defense, military industry, communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries is relatively high, but it only exceeds the historical 2.7%, 2.3% and 2.3%, while the PE valuation of banks, steel, real estate, coal and other industries with relatively low PE level has not reached the historical level of 0.5%.

PB of CITIC’s Tier 1 industry (see Figure 3):Compared with PE, the historical percentage of PB in CITIC’s tier-one industries is relatively lower, and the PB valuation of food and beverage, catering tourism and pharmaceutical industries with higher rankings has not exceeded the historical 0.2%, and all PB levels are at the bottom of history.

On December 26, 2018, the PE of S&P 500 was 18.70, the PE of Hang Seng Index was 9.53, and the PE of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300PE was 10.22. The PE of Nasdaq is 39.9, while that of GEM is 28.2. Therefore, from the horizontal comparison, the valuation of A shares is close to the level of global valuation of Hong Kong stocks.

Performance: both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines.

Since the A-share annual report has not been published, we use the data of the National Bureau of Statistics to look at the revenue and net profit by industry (see Table 1). In terms of revenue, about 80% of the industries’ revenue growth rate is negative year-on-year. Among them, only the YOY of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries, mining professional and auxiliary activities, and oil and gas mining industries exceeds 10%, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 13% and 12% respectively, while the operating income of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industries and ferrous metal mining and dressing industries has dropped significantly year-on-year, dropping by 40% and 43% respectively.

From the perspective of net profit, the growth rate of net profit of over 80% of industries is negative, among which the net profit of ferrous metal mining industry and other mining industries has fallen by a large margin, down by 72% and 50% respectively.

From the perspective of industrial added value, both the year-on-year growth rate and the chain growth rate have declined. In November 2018, the growth rate of industrial added value was 0.36% (see Figure 4), the lowest since August 2015. In November 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.4% (see Figure 5), the lowest since March 2018, and it also showed a downward trend.

Capital: overall substantial net outflow, net inflow of foreign capital.

Investigating the daily main capital flow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets since 2018, it is found that the main capital of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is mainly in the state of capital outflow. According to the statistics of capital flow in the fourth quarter of 2018, it is found that over 80% of the time, A shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are in a state of net outflow of main funds. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the net outflow of A shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 600 billion yuan (Figure 6).

Judging from the flow of funds northward, most of the time the funds are in a state of net inflow. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the net purchase of northbound funds was about 60 billion yuan (Figure 7). Although it was in a state of net inflow, it was significantly lower than the net purchase of 81.5 billion yuan in the third quarter.

Market sentiment: trading is sluggish.

We measure the market sentiment of A shares from three aspects: trading behavior, index products and the views of market participants.

Margin ratio is an important indicator to observe market sentiment from the perspective of trading behavior. Since the end of January 2018, the margin ratio has been declining all the way, and it was not until December that the downward trend was changed. Since December 2018, the ratio of margin financing to securities lending has shown a slight upward trend (see Figure 8).

From the perspective of index products, since 2018, the discount rate of closed-end funds has been positive and shows a fluctuating upward trend (see Figure 9). By mid-October, the discount rate reached the highest level. At present, the discount rate has declined from October and remained at around 10%.

Among many market participants, we choose the most rational data of two types of participants (researchers and block traders) to observe investor sentiment (see Figure 10 and Figure 11). Judging from the seller’s recommendation index, the seller’s recommendation index in the fourth quarter reached the top of nearly three months at the end of October, and after October, the seller’s recommendation index showed a straight decline and is still at a low level. From the perspective of bulk transactions, the current transaction volume has slightly increased compared with the third quarter, and the discount rate has dropped first and then increased.

2018 Trend Summary and 2019 Prospect

Looking higher, we believe that the downturn of A shares in 2018 is inseparable from the overall macroeconomic situation.

Affected by factors such as deleveraging, the performance of industrial enterprises declined in 2018, and the year-on-year growth rate declined. Coupled with external factors such as trade frictions and the Fed’s interest rate hike, A-share confidence was insufficient, and funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets flowed out significantly. The main indexes of A-shares and industry valuation are also at a historically low level.

Looking forward to 2019, we believe that the three carriages (export, investment and consumption) that drive the economy will show this trend with great probability:

(1) Exports will fall back, mainly due to the impact of international trade and the economic slowdown in Europe and America, so we need to focus on the progress and results of Sino-US trade negotiations.

(2) Real estate investment in fixed investment will fall back, but the possibility of loosening the strict control policy on real estate will not be ruled out; Infrastructure will increase slightly, but the extent is limited, mainly depending on whether the space of China’s monetary policy can be opened with the peak of the US interest rate hike cycle, and whether the central and local governments can break through the debt ceiling.

(3) Consumption may improve slightly, which mainly depends on the influence of the leverage of the residential sector. In addition, the policies that may have a general and long-term impact on the macro-economy are tax reduction, fee reduction and the principle of competition neutrality of state-owned enterprises. If the above two policies can make substantial progress beyond expectations, it will greatly boost investors’ mood and fundamentally change the fundamentals of the macro-economy.

In general, it is expected that the probability of market volatility bottoming out in the first half of 2019 is high, and the positive effect of follow-up policies on the stock market remains to be seen. Investors should be alert to the risks brought by market fluctuations. (This article does not constitute any investment advice)

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　　In early September, China launched an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, which boosted the overall oil trend. With the National Day holiday approaching, the market has cooled down the subject matter of Canadian rapeseed anti-dumping transactions. Recently, the supply and demand structure of palm oil producing areas has been expected to tighten, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association has released the signal of output reduction and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance has reduced export taxes and fees, which offset the negative impact of India’s increase in vegetable oil import tariffs. Palm oil production in Malaysia decreased month-on-month due to weather factors, and palm oil led the oil trend.

　　Weather factors affect unit yield

　　At present, palm oil production is in a seasonal increase cycle, but due to bad weather, palm oil production in Malaysia has not increased as expected. SPPOMA survey data show that the output of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 7.01% from September 1 to 20, and the yield of fresh oil palm fruit string decreased by 7.80%. Moreover, the Malaysian meteorological department said that the monsoon season is expected to start from Tuesday and will last until the beginning of November. The heavy rainfall and flood risk brought by the monsoon may disrupt the harvest rhythm of oil palm fruits and affect palm oil production. The bad weather in the northern part of the Malaysian Peninsula has also caused the market to worry about the delay in the seasonal peak of palm oil production, further strengthening the concern of palm oil production reduction in Malaysia. Indonesia’s palm oil production has also declined. According to the prediction of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, palm oil production will drop by 1 million tons to 53.8 million tons in 2024, mainly because the dry weather last year led to a decline in yield, while the oil palm area did not increase. In addition, the implementation of B35 biodiesel blending ratio in Indonesia has increased the consumption demand of palm oil, resulting in the continued low inventory of palm oil in Indonesia. At the end of June, the palm oil inventory was only 2.82 million tons, which was the lowest in the same period in the past five years.

　　Export demand is unsustainable.

　　Malaysian palm oil export demand exceeds market expectations. In September, Indonesia raised the reference price of palm oil export, which led to an increase of 24 US dollars/ton in export tax compared with August, and improved the export competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil. According to shipping data, Malaysia’s palm oil exports from September 1 to 20 ranged from 890,000 to 950,000 tons, an increase of 6.8% to 10% over the same period of last month. Due to the decline of palm oil production in Malaysia due to bad weather and strong export demand, the accumulation rate of palm oil is lower than expected.

　　From the overall demand of palm oil, India raised the import tariff of edible oil from September 14th, and the tariff of crude palm oil increased from 5.5% to 27.5%, and the import tariff of refined palm oil increased from 13.75% to 35.75%, so the import demand of Indian palm oil decreased. According to Indian buyers, Indian refiners canceled the purchase order of 100,000 tons of palm oil delivered from October to December due to the sharp increase in tariffs and soaring prices in Malaysia. In addition, Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance revised the new rules of palm oil export tax, and the export tax was levied according to the percentage of the reference price. The tax rate of crude palm oil was 7.5%, and the tax rate of 24-degree refined palm oil was 4.5%, which came into effect on September 21st. According to the reference price of USD 839.53/ton in September, the export tax is reduced by USD 27/ton and USD 32/ton compared with that before adjustment, which will partially offset the negative impact of the increase of import tax in India on palm oil export. The reduction of export fees will help improve the attractiveness of Indonesian palm oil and pose greater competitive pressure on Malaysian products in the export market. In addition, the incremental export demand will also ease the inventory pressure brought about by the recovery of production and further support the palm oil price.

　　Imports continue to be upside down.

　　In the first half of the year, the domestic palm oil import profit continued to be upside down, and the import volume was low. According to the data released by China Customs, the total palm oil import in August was 400,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.5% and a decrease of 18,900 tons compared with 419,700 tons in the same period of last month. At present, the inventory pressure of palm oil producing area is light, the export quotation is firm, and the upside down of import profit in recent months is still serious. Last week, there were three boat washes in December in China, and no new ships were bought. Due to less palm oil arriving in Hong Kong, it continued to go to the warehouse. On September 17, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas of the country was 528,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons or 7.8% compared with last week. As the temperature drops, palm oil will gradually enter the off-season of consumption, and the rate of palm oil going to the warehouse will slow down in the later period.

　　On the whole, although domestic palm oil itself is on the rise.Insufficient, but palm oil prices are expected to be boosted due to multiple factors such as the production of palm oil in the producing area is less than expected, the pressure of accumulated storage is reduced, and the production reduction season will enter in November. (Author: Huishang Futures)

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