IPO freezing welcomes the climax of lifting the ban on A-share ＂size and size＂

Data picture mapping/Yang Hong

　　Total fundraising decreased by nearly 80% year-on-year.

　　According to the statistics of our data center, including Shanghai Electric’s non-financing IPO, 77 companies have appeared in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets through IPO since 2008 (6 main board companies in Shanghai stock market and 71 small and medium board companies in Shenzhen stock market). Except for Shanghai Electric, 76 companies raised a total of about 103.4 billion yuan, with an average price-earnings ratio of 27 times.

　　Since the beginning of this year, due to the deep adjustment of the stock market, the number of IPO companies and the total amount of funds raised have been greatly reduced compared with last year. The industry believes that the IPO is less likely to open in the remaining ten trading days of the year. Optimists predict that if the market is optimistic, it is expected to restart the IPO； in January or the first quarter of next year; However, pessimists said that the current market expansion pressure is still great, and it will take time to open the gate.

　　77 new faces appeared

　　Since January 1, 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from a high of 5,522 points to 1,954 points on December 12, with a drop rate of more than 60%. The deep adjustment of the market not only makes investors "suffer huge losses", but also greatly reduces the scale of IPO.

　　According to the statistics of our data center, in 2007, a total of 123 companies were listed on the A-share IPO, including 23 main board companies and 100 small and medium-sized board companies in Shanghai. The total amount of funds raised was about 477 billion yuan, with an average price-earnings ratio of 30 times.

　　Compared with 2007, the number of companies listed through IPO in 2008 decreased by 38%, the total amount of funds raised decreased by 78%, and the average P/E ratio decreased by 10%.

　　In addition to the sharp slowdown in the pace of issuance, there have been few large-cap IPOs this year, with only five companies issuing more than 500 million shares, accounting for 6% of the total number of IPOs, compared with 17% last year. However, although the number is small, large-cap stocks still play a major financing role. The five companies raised a total of 73.3 billion yuan, accounting for 70% of the total IPO funds raised this year.

　　Among the 76 IPO companies this year, China Coal Energy raised the highest amount of funds, reaching 25.6 billion yuan; China South Locomotive issued the largest number of shares, with 3 billion shares; The number of shares issued by Chuanda Zhisheng, which was listed on June 23rd, is the smallest, only 13 million shares. Teerjia, which went public on February 1st, raised the least amount of funds, amounting to 122.2 million yuan.

　　At the same time, due to the continuous decline of the market, the increase of IPO on the first day of listing is also very different. Huarui Cast Steel, which was listed on January 16th, issued 54 million shares, raising 580 million yuan, with an opening increase of 206% and a closing increase of 189%. Huachang Chemical, which was listed on September 25th, issued 51 million shares and raised 510 million yuan, with an opening increase of only 75% and a closing increase of 85%.

　　From the industry point of view, in 2007, 10 financial and insurance companies went public through IPO, while in 2008, the number was 0; Among the IPO companies this year, the two industries with the largest proportion are machinery, equipment, instrumentation and petrochemical plastics, with 16 and 14 companies respectively.

　　Judging from the month of IPO issuance, there were at least four in March this year; At the peak in May, 18 companies were issued and listed. Up to now, no company has listed on the IPO in the fourth quarter.

　　It is worth noting that although Shanghai Electric, which landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 5, was also in the form of IPO, it adopted the method of exchanging shares to absorb the shares of Shanghai Power, and did not raise funds from the market.

　　The IPO has not been reviewed in the past three months.

　　Since Huachang Chemical landed in Shenzhen Small and Medium-sized Board on September 25th, the domestic A-share IPO has been at a standstill. Not only that, the IPO audit has also entered a "frozen period". Since the initial application of Hunan Boyun New Materials Co., Ltd. was approved by the Audit Committee of China Securities Regulatory Commission at its 135th meeting in 2008 on September 16, 2008, the Audit Committee has not conducted IPO audit for nearly three months by December 12, 2008.

　　According to the data of Wind, there are 33 companies that have "passed the meeting" but are still waiting in line for listing, including China Construction, Everbright Securities and China Merchants Securities. Among them, the first application for China Building was approved on June 5th, and it has been more than six months since then.

　　However, it is not just domestic A-shares that are stagnant in IPO. In the context of the global financial crisis and the sharp turmoil in the stock market, the global IPO process has slowed down significantly, especially in the United States. According to reports, since the last IPO on August 8, the US IPO market has been completely frozen, and there has been no harvest for several months, setting a record for the longest "vacuum period" of US IPOs since Thomson Reuters tracked statistics in 1980. Some people joked that American IPO entered the hibernation period ahead of schedule, and many bankers and investors have basically begun to pay attention to IPO activities next year, but no longer care about the rest of 2008.

　　When will the gate open?

　　Although there are still 13 trading days left in December, the industry believes that the possibility of restarting IPO this year is very small.

　　According to Wind data, the number of shares released in December reached 25.256 billion, second only to 27.55 billion in August, which was the second largest peak of lifting the ban in the year, and the financial pressure was still great.

　　Liu Jiazhang, a strategist at National Securities, said that the current market financing function depends entirely on the quality of the market. If there is a cross-year market, there may be some small and medium-sized board IPOs tentatively in January or the first quarter of next year.

　　Unlike Liu Jiazhang’s optimistic expectations, most people in the industry are relatively pessimistic. Xu Haiyang, chief strategist of Nisshin Securities, said that the current market environment does not have the conditions to restart the IPO, and there is no hope that the IPO will open for at least three months. The economy is located in the deceleration cycle, and the secondary market is expected to expand greatly, which greatly affects the market financing function.

　　Xu Wei, a strategic researcher at Guojin Securities, also said that it may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter at the earliest, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to maintain the stable and healthy development of the capital market, and the management will also consider the market situation more.

　　At present, the important problem to be solved in the stock market is not to promote more corporate financing, but to solve the "sequela" problem of share reform and expansion reasonably and smoothly. According to the statistics of brokers, the total number of "non-size" lifting the ban will reach 687.024 billion shares next year, which is the highest peak in the history of "non-size" lifting the ban, equivalent to 4.2 times the number of lifting the ban this year. After the lifting of the ban, the proportion of A-share tradable shares in the total share capital will soar from 37% at the end of 2008 to 74% next year.

　　Xu Haiyang pointed out that the focus of the macro-economy in the future is to maintain growth, and the focus of the capital market in one or two years is to solve the problem of expansion. Even if the newly listed stocks are not considered, the market value of tradable shares will expand by about three times in the next two years. Earlier, it was reported that the audit committee "dismissed" some companies that queued up for the meeting, which also reflected the management’s orientation. The capital needs of more companies may need to be realized through other channels than the stock market.

　　In addition, for the Growth Enterprise Market, Xu Wei analyzed that the Growth Enterprise Market will be launched when the market is stable, and it may take one or two hundred companies to launch at once when the Growth Enterprise Market is just launched, so that the market scale will rise and it is possible to trade and invest. However, the large-scale launch has great pressure on the market. Therefore, the management will first consider the opening of IPO in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and slowly "release" the companies waiting in line for issuance. (Reporter Wang Jin)

Editor: Wang Jiaolong